A study by researchers from EHESP School of Public Health (1), REPERES team (2) estimates the impact of French lockdown over a month in terms of hospitalization, ICU admissions and hospital deaths avoided. This model shows that, without these measures, the number of daily deaths would have doubled every 4 to 5 days from March 19, and reached 10,000 by April 19. The study suggests that the one-month lockdown period helped avoid up to 60,000 deaths and that without lockdown measures, more than 100,000 ICU beds would have been required by April 20, 2020.
(1) Jonathan Roux (EHESP French School of Public Health), Clément Massonnaud (EHESP French School of Public Health /Rouen University Hospital) and Pascal Crépey (French EHESP School of Public Health)
(2) REPERES EA 7449 (Pharmacoepidemiology and health care research team) is an integrated research, expertise and training unit resulting from the convergence of two groups, one based at the Rennes University Hospital (France) and the other at EHESP French School of Public Health (France).